The CSI Effect, Fact or Fiction?

categories: forensic science, juries, media and criminal justice

Published November 02, 2009 @ 06:39AM PT

The overwhelming popularity of crime and forensics TV shows like CSI, Law & Order and NCIS is having a profound impact on how our society views crime, but the storied effect of these shows on juries may be a myth.

A new study shows that watching these shows leads us to drastically overestimate the frequency of violent crime in our country.

The new research, from Purdue University, finds that frequent TV crime viewers estimated that the number of murders was 2-3 times higher than it is in reality. But true-crime junkies also think cops and lawyers are everywhere. They guessed that each group made up more than 16 percent of the American workforce. They're really less than one percent each.

So how does this altered perception of crime translate to the courtroom?

Prosecutors complain that these shows have raised juror expectations about forensic science, making them less likely to convict in cases without scientific proof (although only a small percentage of cases involve forensics). Defense attorneys worry about the flip side: that if prosecutors throw out any type of science or shiny pseudo-science, jurors will be star-struck by the CSI-like witnesses and will be more likely to convict. This is one reason we need forensic standards -- to ensure that nobody is being convicted based on untested brain waves or bootprints or voice stress analysis.

But are these worries based in reality? Maybe not. Two prominent studies focused on the prosecution's concerns found that while crime-drama viewers had different expectations and interpretations of evidence, they weren't more or less likely to convict base don forensics.

One 2006 study, from a judge and two Eastern Michigan University law professors, finds crime-drama viewers had a higher expectation for forensic evidence, but their votes to convict or acquit weren't affected. (Summary here, full study PDF here).

Another, from two Arizona State professors in 2007, found that CSI-lovers were more skeptical of questionable forensics and more confident of their verdicts, but once again, their verdicts weren't significantly different from jurors who didn't watch these shows.

There's more study to do, but in the meantime, it looks like the CSI Effect -- on juries at least -- may be more legend than fact. Whether our obsession with crime influences our political debate toward tough sentences, or whether it has us more worried about personal safety than we need be, those questions are still open.

Hat tip: Mike Smithhhhhhhh

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Comments (11)

I personally have no interest in these shows whatsoever. This shows love to glamorize the criminal justice system and make people believe that in a span of 30 minutes to an hour crimes are easily solved and that criminals are brought to justice at the snap of a finger. Unfortunately anyone who has any history in the criminal justice system knows that this is far from the case. Sometimes cases take months even years for a case to be solved and sometimes the case isn't solved at all.

Posted by rocky dominguez on 11/02/2009 @ 02:33PM PT
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Whwen is someone going to write a script where N.A.S.A. is uses to sove crimes

I already have one but don't know who to send it to

It involves N.A.S.A Sending videos of a crime scene where a body was found the Cops follow the car seen in the video back to where it went to and arrested the perp

Posted by Bill Tomsick on 11/06/2009 @ 10:04AM PT
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I had to stop watching these shows for this very reason! I started thinking that everyone was a criminal, from the guy at the grocery store to the nice old lady next door. I don't think it would have effected my verdict if I was on a jury but it was definitely making me paranoid.

Posted by Amanda Cooke on 11/08/2009 @ 09:35AM PT
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The passage of sentencing laws such as Three Strikes was based on what the public perceived. California locked up drug users and shoplifters for life as most felt crime was on the rise and out of control. The real reason was media attention to crime. The following is a study by Justice Policy Institute. Fueled by increasing media coverage, growing public fear, and a new emphasis on crime as a political issue, the 1990s were primed to witness a Three Strikes explosion. For example, despite a 33% decline in homicides from 1990 to 1998, coverage of homicides on the ABC, NBC and CBS evening news increased by 473% during that time period.

Not surprisingly, despite several years of declining crime rates, public concern about crime was riding high in 1994. Seventy-three percent of the public thought that crime was on the rise in 1994 versus only 3% who thought crime was decreasing. By comparison, in 1999, after eight years of declining crime, the gap between poll respondents who thought that crime was increasing versus decreasing was a much narrower 38% to 26%.iv

Along with these changes, the percentage of Americans favoring mandatory sentences such as Three Strikes laws declined as the 1990s waned, from 55% in 1995 to only 38% by 2001.v A Field Poll conducted in July 2004 about an initiative on California’s ballot that would reform that state’s Three Strikes law found 69% of respondents favoring reform, versus 19% who opposed the reform, a startling turnabout from the 72% of Californians voting in favor of Three Strikes in 1994.

Posted by Francis Courser on 11/08/2009 @ 01:00PM PT
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I for one think that these shows reduce the overall crime rate, by broadcasting and reinforcing the notion that nobody can get away with anything...there's a camera here, a bent blade of grass there, and a drop of sweat with some DNA...CLANK! You're busted.

However, it seems when you report a crime, you are faced with a very unmotivated, slow-moving bureacracy that tells you to take a number. Or maybe this just takes place in metropolitan areas.

Posted by Ken Kupstis on 11/08/2009 @ 06:43PM PT
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Anyone who has had any experience with the so-called criminal justice system knows these shows are fantasy. Usually, crimes are solved - if they are solved - because somebody talks, not because of great forensic work. Many crimes go unsolved, but most criminals do get caught - they keep committing crimes until they do! Most of them are not very bright, anyway - and the same is true of the cops!

Some of the most successful crooks are police informants; when they get caught with stolen goods or something, they just finger someone else for the crime and get immunity in return for their cooperation. If you have informed previously, and it led to a conviction, that proves you're a reliable informant, so you're the one they'll listen to - even though you're a career criminal, and the guy you're fingering is your hapless dupe.

The whole system is incredibly sleazy and corrupt, nothing at all like the cop shows.

Posted by Spencer Selander on 11/09/2009 @ 02:54AM PT
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The only "crime dramas" I watch are the ones where the criminals are more interesting than the "good guys" like The Dark Knight or where the usual lines between good and bad are blurred like High Plains Drifter.

Posted by Martin Bring on 11/09/2009 @ 12:12PM PT
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We can't put the blame just on these crime shows, watching the local news is the same. You very rarely see anything good going on in the world, but they let you know about every rape and murder!

Posted by Amanda Cooke on 11/10/2009 @ 08:43AM PT
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You are right, we are a nation ruled by fear. Why do the media replay every heinous crime over and over for months. If someone was killed in Fl. Ca, Ny or wherever it is sad but does not pertain to us.

Fear has created the huge prisons we have more than criminals have. Think about it

Posted by Elena Bost on 11/13/2009 @ 04:56PM PT
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I'm tired of crime dramas and doctor shows, especially when they don't even address current issues like reform.

Think of how SNL helped in the Obama election. But why do they torture on "24" and act like it's normal? Now we have to fight against torture, which is illegal, all over again.

One saving grace has been the good and enlightened work that often comes out of Hollywood to show us what is important to us and help us see things from different angles.

For example, after watching Blood Diamond, I will never buy another diamond without checking to make sure it is cruelty free. Not that I'm gonna have that chance in the near future.

I just think that if it's a crime or medical drama, it should be factual and based on current law. Not some imaginary place.

Posted by CherokeeGirl for Change on 11/11/2009 @ 11:18AM PT
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I love these shows, but I also realize that most of this stuff is completely untrue. I know many people who have tried to go into these professions and were turned off by how much more difficult it was than they thought. It's not all coffee and glamor.

But as Amanda mentioned above, the overestimation of crime comes from other places in the media as well. They air the same overdramatic news broadcasts that make people think the murderer is coming after them.

Posted by Tiffany Pool on 11/13/2009 @ 06:28PM PT
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Matt has worked and volunteered in various capacities in criminal justice reform for several years. When he's not blogging, he works as the Online Communications Manager at the Innocence Project. Views expressed here are Matt's, and don't represent the positions of the Innocence Project.